Random health shocks in equal society
No randomness in life in unequal society – Brave New World or dystopian society, except that health score at entry is equal
The dashed vertical lines represent encountered shocks. The solid vertical lines represent taken shocks.
The light grey solid line represents the health score over time when no shock is taken. Though it flattens when the individual dies.
If the background color of an individuals plot is light grey that means the individual died before the end of the simulation.
You may notice that some of these plots do not contain a legend label for all shock causes. This is because those legend labels only show up if an individual in the sample took a shock of that cause.
The simple mean of all effort scores in the population
The simple mean of all circumstance scores in the population
0.5 + (circumstance values / 2)
0.99 + (circumstance values / 100)
P(0.5): Probability of taking a shock is equal to 0.5 for all agents.
For each step in the deterministic shocks: L-encounter, L-take, and L-magnitude - the population is sorted by the health score.
The number of agents who encounter a shock is equal to the percent of the susceptible population according to the cause specific prevalence rate for the age group at the current time of the simulation.
The number of agents who take a shock is equal to (1 - mean health ability) * the number of encountered shocks.
The shock magnitude applied to the agents who encountered a shock is sampled uniformly from the disability weights for that shock cause, then sorted from high to low, and the highest shock magnitudes are applied to the agents with the lowest health scores.
Each agent in the susceptible population has a P(prevalence rate) chance of encountering a shock
Each agent in that encountered a shock has a P(health ability) chance of taking that shock
Each agent that has taken a shock receives a health score deduction from a uniform sample of the disability weights for that shock cause
The health ability values are first centered around zero. Then, for each individual, take the inverse of the centered health ability values and multiply by the shock probability. Then, apply a sigmoid function to those shock probability values. Then, each individual encounters the shock based on the Monte Carlo Hazard function applied to the shock probability values.