Simulation Results

Pure luck model

Random health shocks in equal society

Unequal society with equal start modified by effort

Whether to take health shock is determined by circumstance and effort – the same model as the calibration “base” model

Unequal society with equal start modified by effort with unequal shock encounter probability

Whether to take health shock is determined by circumstance and effort, whether to encounter a health shock is determined by health ability and age

Deterministic model with equal health score at entry

No randomness in life in unequal society – Brave New World or dystopian society, except that health score at entry is equal

Extra Information

Notes on some plots

Health Scores over time for sample of Individuals

The dashed vertical lines represent encountered shocks. The solid vertical lines represent taken shocks.

The light grey solid line represents the health score over time when no shock is taken. Though it flattens when the individual dies.

If the background color of an individuals plot is light grey that means the individual died before the end of the simulation.

You may notice that some of these plots do not contain a legend label for all shock causes. This is because those legend labels only show up if an individual in the sample took a shock of that cause.

Implementation of Simulation Options

Equal Effort

The simple mean of all effort scores in the population

Equal Circumstance

The simple mean of all circumstance scores in the population

Unequal Health Score at entry

0.5 + (circumstance values / 2)

Slightly Unequal Health Score at entry

0.99 + (circumstance values / 100)

Uniform Random Probability of taking a Shock

P(0.5): Probability of taking a shock is equal to 0.5 for all agents.

Deterministic Shocks

For each step in the deterministic shocks: L-encounter, L-take, and L-magnitude - the population is sorted by the health score.

The number of agents who encounter a shock is equal to the percent of the susceptible population according to the cause specific prevalence rate for the age group at the current time of the simulation.

The number of agents who take a shock is equal to (1 - mean health ability) * the number of encountered shocks.

The shock magnitude applied to the agents who encountered a shock is sampled uniformly from the disability weights for that shock cause, then sorted from high to low, and the highest shock magnitudes are applied to the agents with the lowest health scores.

Base Model Shocks (default)

Each agent in the susceptible population has a P(prevalence rate) chance of encountering a shock

Each agent in that encountered a shock has a P(health ability) chance of taking that shock

Each agent that has taken a shock receives a health score deduction from a uniform sample of the disability weights for that shock cause

Shock Probability Conditional on Health Ability

The health ability values are first centered around zero. Then, for each individual, take the inverse of the centered health ability values and multiply by the shock probability. Then, apply a sigmoid function to those shock probability values. Then, each individual encounters the shock based on the Monte Carlo Hazard function applied to the shock probability values.